Neistoty v povodňovom modelovaní

Uncertainties in Flood Modeling

Matej Vojtek

In: Geografické informácie (Geographical Information), Ročník (Volume) 22, Číslo (Issue) 2, 2018, p. 352-364, ISSN 1337-9453

DOI: 10.17846/GI.2018.22.2.352-364

Abstract

In recent years, several legally binding and non-binding documents related to flood protection with a specific emphasis on producing flood maps were adopted by the EU. Flood modeling is an important part of flood risk analysis since it results in showing the flood depth, flood extent, and water flow. However, flood modeling incorporates several uncertainties which influence the resulting flood maps. Therefore, the aim of this article is to point out and describe these uncertainties which are related to the application of hydrologic-hydraulic models and their input data. The main sources of uncertainty in model input data arise from the digital elevation model, roughness parameters, cross-section spacing, geometric data, and hydraulic structures along the reach. Another source of uncertainty is the estimation of design discharges with T-year return periods or design hydrographs using different statistical methods as well as rainfall-runoff models. Moreover, uncertainty is incorporated in the hydraulic model itself and flow conditions used.

Keywords: flood, modeling, uncertainty, digital elevation model, design discharges, hydraulic model

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